Samsung Narrows HBM Gap With SK hynix to 17 Points

* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six tailored news items for each reader type.

1. Securing HBM4 Golden Yields for a Volume Push, Also Lifting Competitiveness in Commodity DRAM and Foundry

Key points: Samsung Electronics' HBM4 yields have risen from below 60% in early mass production to a stable golden-yield range of about 80%, accelerating the shift to expanded output. The company expects third-quarter HBM4 revenue to more than triple from the previous quarter, and related revenue topped $1 billion (about 1.4 trillion won) three months after mass-production shipments began in February. HBM4 sells for about 2 million won per chip, more than double the price of HBM3E. According to Counterpoint Research, Samsung Electronics' share of the HBM market jumped to 33% in the second quarter of this year, narrowing the gap with SK hynix to 17 percentage points from 37 percentage points in the first quarter. Analysts say that with yields stabilized, Samsung Electronics' HBM output expansion could also strengthen its bargaining power on commodity DRAM prices and improve foundry profitability.

2. MLCC ETFs Absent in Korea, Four Listed in the U.S. in a Month

Key points: Four MLCC-related ETFs have been listed in the U.S. market within a month, turning AI power components into a standalone investment theme. Samsung Electro-Mechanics has been included in the underlying indexes of major ETFs with a weighting of up to 21.55%. According to Kiwoom Securities (039490.KS), the number of MLCCs used per GPU is estimated to rise from about 200 in Nvidia's H100 to about 5,000 in the next-generation Rubin. The market for MLCCs used in AI servers is projected to expand to $5.8 billion in 2030 from $1.3 billion last year, while lead times, normally six to eight weeks, have stretched to at least 20 weeks. Analysts say a structural bottleneck — it takes 12 to 24 months from a decision to invest in a new production line to mass production — is turning the supply oligopoly centered on Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Murata into an investment opportunity.

3. Samsung, SK hynix Buybacks Seen Ending in Mid-October

Key points: Share buybacks by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which have supported the downside of the KOSPI, are expected to end as early as the middle of next month, ahead of the originally scheduled November completion. Samsung Electronics bought 39.8 million shares, or 74.69% of its total planned volume, for 10.3078 trillion won over 20 trading sessions, while SK hynix purchased 14.15 million shares for 24.39 trillion won over 22 trading sessions, bringing the two companies' combined purchases to 34.6978 trillion won. The large-scale buybacks are credited with stabilizing the index by preventing the KOSPI from triggering a sidecar since the 20th of last month. Some in the industry are concerned about which investor group will support the KOSPI once the buying ends.

4. [Exclusive] Samsung Electronics to Double HBM4, 4E Output Next Year

Key points: Samsung Electronics plans to raise outsourced cleaning volumes for the glass carriers used in its HBM4 production process by 2.5 times, to 50,000 sheets a month next year from 20,000 sheets a month this year. According to industry sources, Samsung Electronics' total HBM production, measured by average monthly wafer input, is expected to rise nearly 40% to about 250,000 sheets next year from about 180,000 sheets this year. HBM4-series products are expected to account for about 80% of the product mix next year, up from around 40% this year, as HBM4E mass production gets fully under way. Samsung Electronics supplied 12-layer HBM4E samples to major customers in May and has begun product qualification, and analysts say a rising share of high-value products could feed directly into improved earnings.

5. "The Won Needs to Strengthen Further to Ease Polarization; 5.5% on U.S. 10-Year Is the Red Line"

Key points: In an urgent survey of 20 foreign exchange experts conducted by The Seoul Economic Daily, the prevailing view was that a decline in the exchange rate to the low 1,300 won per dollar range would help stabilize prices and support a domestic demand recovery. The experts put the appropriate short-term exchange rate at 1,380 to 1,420 won and the appropriate medium- to long-term rate in the high 1,200s to low 1,300s, and identified the point at which the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5.5% as the red line for economic risk. The Bank of Korea has also assessed that rising U.S. Treasury yields could weigh on domestic semiconductor exports by dampening AI investment. The experts agreed, however, that sharp volatility rather than the level of the exchange rate could create greater uncertainty for corporate currency hedging and investment decisions.

6. Funds Breach VaR Limits, Money Moves Back Into Deposits

Key points: Rising global bond yields and increased stock market volatility have pushed the utilization rates of market-risk value-at-risk (VaR) limits at major financial funds above 100%. At the Korea Agricultural Credit Guarantee Fund, the VaR limit utilization rate soared to 211.5% in the first half of this year from 63.8% at the end of 2024, a level measured as a "crisis" stage, while the yield on three-year Korean treasury bonds broke through 4% on the 11th of this month. The funds are responding by replacing bond-mixed products with time deposits or restricting equity holdings, but the dilemma between tighter risk management and meeting target returns is deepening. Experts said stronger asset-liability management (ALM) frameworks and substantive improvements to the pension fund investment pool system are needed.