Expectations for improving corporate earnings in South Korea are spreading beyond large-cap chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to non-semiconductor companies. Excluding those two chipmakers, the combined 2027 operating profit forecast for KOSPI 200 companies has been raised 15.1% over the past three months, roughly triple the upgrade rate for the two chip heavyweights. Analysts say earnings momentum in the stock market is broadening beyond semiconductors as profit expectations rise quickly at energy and shipping companies.
Samsung Electronics' consensus forecast for 2027 operating profit now stands at 552.6835 trillion won, up 5.8% from three months earlier, according to financial data provider FnGuide on the 2nd. Over the same period, the forecast for SK hynix rose 1.1% to 400.1405 trillion won from 395.8657 trillion won.
Sharp upgrades are also piling up among non-semiconductor companies. SK Innovation's 2027 operating profit forecast jumped 56.4% over three months to 4.7576 trillion won from 3.0423 trillion won. S-Oil's forecast rose 42.0% to 3.404 trillion won from 2.3972 trillion won, and HMM's climbed 35.8% to 1.1219 trillion won from 826.4 billion won. GS was raised 10.0% over the same period.
The pattern seen at individual companies also holds across the KOSPI 200. Excluding Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, the 2027 operating profit forecast for KOSPI 200 companies was raised 15.1% to 358 trillion won from 311 trillion won over the past three months, according to Samsung Securities and QuantiWise. The combined forecast for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix rose 5.5% over the same period, meaning the upgrade rate for non-semiconductor companies was about three times that of the two chip heavyweights.
Behind the shift are improving profits in the energy sector and expectations of an economic recovery. Sharp upgrades to profit forecasts at energy-related companies including S-Oil, HMM and GS were a particular factor. If oil prices stabilize and the domestic recovery continues, the earnings rebound could spread to domestic demand sectors such as banking and credit cards, liquor and beverages, and airlines and ground transport.
Notably, profit forecasts for non-semiconductor companies improved even as the won strengthened. The won-dollar exchange rate averaged 1,423 won in the third quarter, down 5.22% from 1,502 won in the previous quarter. A stronger won typically weighs on exporters' won-denominated results. That forecasts still rose for companies outside Samsung Electronics and SK hynix suggests improvement factors are emerging that outweigh the currency effect.
The gains were not limited to energy. LG Innotek's 2027 operating profit forecast was raised 9.5% over three months. Forecasts also improved for HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (9.7%), Hanwha Ocean (6.7%) and Hyundai Engineering & Construction (2.0%). By sector, 2027 operating profit forecasts over the past three months were raised 28.4% for technology hardware and equipment and 19.8% for insurance, with energy up 13.3% and shipbuilding up 12.2%. The forecast for autos and auto parts, however, fell 0.6% over the same period. Because a stronger won works relatively against sectors such as autos, information technology and chemicals, analysts say earnings may diverge more sharply by sector and by company going forward.
Improving indicators for export sectors outside semiconductors also support earnings expectations at non-chip companies. Exports from sectors excluding semiconductors rose 23.1% in September from a year earlier, according to iM Securities. "Export growth in non-semiconductor sectors, not just semiconductors, is encouraging and should contribute to strong exports in the fourth quarter," said Park Sang-hyun, an analyst at iM Securities.
