WASHINGTON — "Who do you think wins the midterms?"
Ask that question among diplomats in Washington and the answers vary, but they converge on one conclusion: whatever the result, President Donald Trump will turn his attention overseas.
Looking at the U.S. midterm elections set for Nov. 3, the most likely scenario at present is a split Congress, with Republicans holding the Senate and Democrats taking the House. Trump's approval rating may be at a record low, but the Senate seats up for election lean Republican, making it difficult for Democrats to flip that chamber as well. A congressional official said senators, who serve six-year terms, spend that much longer cultivating their districts. "The House often changes hands depending on the president's approval rating, but Senate seats rarely shift easily," the official said.
The next scenario is a "blue wave," in which Democrats capture the Senate as well as the House. With the Senate now split 53-47 in favor of Republicans, Democrats would need four additional seats for a majority. The argument rests on Democrats leading in polls across nine battleground races. Less likely, but not dismissed, is a Republican sweep of both chambers. Trump's promised $5,000-per-person dividend if Republicans win is said to be moving sentiment at the grassroots.
If the split-Congress outcome materializes, Democrats are expected to use the House to drive a season of hearings digging into Trump's conduct, including his cryptocurrency investments. Given Trump's pattern of driving the news rather than being driven by it, he is likely to resume attacks on Iran or push for a summit with North Korea to shift public attention.
The same holds if Democrats sweep both chambers. The House could pass articles of impeachment by a simple majority, but removal from office requires the support of two-thirds of senators present. Impeachment is unlikely to go that far, and Trump is expected to immerse himself further in foreign affairs to escape congressional checks. If Republicans win both chambers, Trump would take it as a fresh mandate and press his current foreign policy even harder.
Whatever the outcome, South Korea needs to prepare for the possibility that Trump's foreign policy turns more aggressive. Facing "two years without an election" until the 2028 presidential race, Trump could resume military operations aimed at denuclearizing Iran, and demands for South Korean troop deployments are feared to grow louder. The odds of a U.S.-North Korea summit are high, and in that process Washington could lift sanctions in exchange for removing only "threats to the United States" — tolerating North Korea's nuclear weapons while freezing only missile development. U.S. pressure on South Korean digital policy, including over Coupang, is set to continue, while security agreements Seoul needs, such as approval to build nuclear-powered submarines, are likely to run into a Congress where Democratic influence has grown.
Among Washington's lobbying community, the $350 billion investment pledge to the United States is cited as South Korea's only but powerful card amid strained bilateral ties. The advice is that despite the many disagreements between the two countries, Seoul can secure the outcomes it wants if it deploys the investment card properly. In the end, to weather the wave coming after the midterms, the South Korean government has no choice but to put U.S. demands and its investment card on a single table and respond with a comprehensive judgment. If Washington presses hard for troop deployments, for example, Seoul could secure leverage by adjusting the timetable or the pace of disbursement for its U.S. investments.
Yet the government's performance so far has been far from coordinated. Word has often reached Washington that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy are blaming each other over the pace of trade, investment and security talks, and no control tower has been visible to coordinate them. The resignation of former Policy Chief Kim Yong-beom makes a personnel overhaul at the presidential office look unavoidable. The first task for the new lineup is to establish a control tower that can bind diplomatic, trade and security issues with the United States into a single strategy.
