U.S. 10-Year Yield Tops 5.3% for First Time Since 2002

Second-Quarter Growth Also Beats Expectations Odds of an October Rate Hold Climb Oil Rebounds as Middle East Talks Stall

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By Yoon Kyung-hwanykh22@sedaily.com
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Traders look at stock screens at the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan on Oct. 29. Reuters-Yonhap - Seoul Economic Daily International News from South Korea
Traders look at stock screens at the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan on Oct. 29. Reuters-Yonhap

NEW YORK — U.S. stocks ended mixed as the 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5.3% for the first time in 24 years, even after the August personal consumption expenditures price index came in below expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 443.87 points, or 0.86%, at 50,906.05 on the 30th. The Standard & Poor's 500 fell 19.30 points, or 0.25%, to 7,651.54, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 63.52 points, or 0.24%, to 26,861.06.

Among the largest companies by market value, Nvidia gained 0.80%, Apple 1.10%, Microsoft 0.77%, Amazon 1.01%, Google parent Alphabet 0.93%, SpaceX 1.09% and Tesla 0.56%. Declining were TSMC, down 0.16%, Facebook parent Meta, down 1.84%, Broadcom, down 0.99%, SK hynix, down 1.36%, and Micron, down 0.01%.

Stocks opened broadly higher after the August PCE price index proved benign. The index rose 3.4% from a year earlier, below the market forecast of 3.7%, the Commerce Department said. The core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.0%, also below the 3.3% expected.

Data showing stronger-than-expected growth added to the early gains. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized 2.2% in the second quarter, according to the final estimate from the Commerce Department. That topped the 1.5% forecast and exceeded the revised figure released in August, also 1.5%, by 0.7 percentage points. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of PCE and private fixed investment, rose 4.6%, accelerating from 1.8% in the first quarter. The measure is a key gauge of private-sector consumption and investment sentiment.

As inflation concerns eased, traders raised the odds that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark rate unchanged at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the 27th and 28th of this month. Fed funds futures put the probability of a hold at 65.1%, up from 49.1% a day earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The odds of a 0.25 percentage point increase fell to 34.9% from 50.9%. The probability of just one increase this year rose to 60.0% from 49.4%, while the chance of two slipped to 29.0% from 42.2%.

Stocks later gave back part of their gains as Treasury yields jumped during the session. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for global bond markets, climbed as high as 5.306%, its highest since May 2002 and above the 5.303% reached in 2007 during the global financial crisis. The 30-year yield rose to as much as 5.652%, and the two-year yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy, reached 4.899%.

Oil prices rebounded as talks between the United States and Iran stalled. Brent crude for November delivery settled up 94 cents, or 0.92%, at $103.53 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose $1.04, or 1.16%, to $90.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

President Donald Trump denied a report by the U.S. online outlet Axios that Washington was weighing sanctions relief and the release of frozen funds in return for specific Iranian steps on its nuclear program. Gasoline inventories fell 1.7 million barrels from the prior week to 204.4 million barrels, while distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, dropped 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration.

null - Seoul Economic Daily International News from South Korea

Original reporting by Yoon Kyung-hwan for Seoul Economic Daily.

AI-translated from Korean. Quotes from foreign sources are based on Korean-language reports and may not reflect exact original wording.

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