Bitcoin (BTC) is trading sideways in the $77,000 range. With rising international oil prices fueling concern that the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates, the cryptocurrency has given back much of its recent surge, prompting talk of a so-called "Bart Simpson pattern" that would signal a further correction.
Bitcoin was trading at $77,129.07 as of 8 a.m. on the 3rd, down 0.29% from the previous day, according to global cryptocurrency tracker CoinMarketCap. Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.36% to $2,379.07, while BNB rose 0.79% to $686.00 and XRP gained 0.01% to $1.345.
Domestic prices moved higher. On Bithumb at the same time, bitcoin rose 0.08% from the previous day to 105.989 million won. Ethereum fell 0.46% to 3.275 million won, and XRP rose 1.04% to 1,850 won.
Analysts said the climb in oil prices is weighing on risk assets including cryptocurrencies. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has jumped to about $90 a barrel from $70 in early July. As inflation concerns mount, the probability of a Fed rate increase in September has risen to 62%, based on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool. Some argue, however, that responding with a rate hike could be a policy mistake, given that the latest oil rally stems from a supply shock tied to the conflict involving Iran.
Technically, the potential formation of a "Bart Simpson pattern" is drawing attention, according to cryptocurrency news outlet CoinDesk. The name comes from the resemblance between the chart shape — a sharp rally, followed by a period of sideways trading and then a steep drop — and the head of Bart Simpson, a character in the animated series "The Simpsons." Bitcoin surged from about $64,420 on Aug. 19 to $78,300 on Aug. 21, then stalled near $80,700 on Aug. 25. It has since slipped into the $77,000 range, raising the possibility that the pattern's final leg down is taking shape.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, said bitcoin would have to fall about 20% to complete a full Bart Simpson pattern, but assessed the likelihood as low. Frank Hepworth, chief executive of NewMarket Trading, took the opposite view, saying that because bitcoin failed to break above its 50-week moving average near $81,000, stronger selling could push it down to $70,000 and potentially to $58,000.
The Fear and Greed Index from crypto data analytics firm Alternative.me stood at 63, down 6 points from the previous day, placing it in "greed" territory. A reading closer to zero indicates weaker investor sentiment, while a reading closer to 100 signals an overheated market.
