Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the Korea-U.S. alliance "is indeed going through a difficult period" but predicted it "will become a stronger alliance." On the U.S.-China summit set for the 24th in the United States, he called the resumption of military-to-military dialogue between the two countries "a very positive development."
Cha is scheduled to make the remarks on Arirang TV's news interview program "Within the Frame," airing at 8:30 p.m. on the 21st. Assessing the alliance, he said, "There are commercial disputes at the moment, the investment agreement has not been fully concluded, and there are differences of opinion over the timing of the transfer of wartime operational control," adding, "It is true that we are going through a somewhat difficult period."
Still, he said, "If there were no such differences of opinion at all, it would be hard to call it a normal alliance," explaining that "the changes now under way are changing both the economic foundation and the security foundation of the alliance." He stressed, "In the end, I am confident it will be reborn as a stronger alliance than it is now."
On the U.S.-China summit, he said "any form of agreement to resume military-to-military dialogue would be a very positive development," while adding, "Personally, I do not see much chance of a broader arms control agreement involving missiles or nuclear warheads." The two countries are discussing the restoration of military communication channels ahead of the meeting, sources said.
Cha said "the Taiwan issue is the biggest variable in this U.S.-China summit," adding, "I am concerned that President Trump has delayed arms sales to Taiwan and referred to this as 'leverage' in negotiations with China." The point is that the image of the United States abandoning Taiwan feeds concerns in both South Korea and Japan that they could suffer similar harm, meaning alliances in the region could be shaken.
On U.S.-North Korea talks, Cha said they would come "at the earliest in late November or December," explaining, "North Korea will want to watch the outcome of the midterm elections, and it would prefer to deal with a President Trump who is politically weaker after the vote."
