"If you don't buy now, you may only have a few weeks left."
Morgan Stanley has issued a strong buy signal on SpaceX, the space and artificial intelligence company led by Elon Musk, setting a price target of $300 — roughly 75% above the current share price. The investment bank argues that once two growth engines, AI computing and Starship, move into full gear, the company's present valuation will be hard to justify.
'Headed to $300' — Morgan Stanley Says Buying Window Is Only Weeks
SpaceX closed at $171.09 on the New York Stock Exchange on the 5th, up 7.63% from the previous session. The gain followed a 7.4% rise on the 2nd, marking a second straight day of sharp advances. The stock is up about 27% from its June listing price of $135.
The rally was ignited by a report released that day by Adam Jonas, the Morgan Stanley analyst known for his bullish views on Tesla, titled "Cheap and Getting Cheaper." Jonas reaffirmed an overweight rating on SpaceX and a price target of $300.
Jonas singled out the next several weeks, ahead of the 15th Starship test flight, as a critical window for investors. "Investors will have an unusual opportunity to buy SpaceX shares that look extraordinarily cheap," he said, adding that once key milestones are cleared, buying at current levels may become difficult.
In its 14th Starship test flight last week, SpaceX reached low Earth orbit for the first time and successfully deployed Starlink satellites. For the 15th flight, the main test objective under discussion is a "ship catch," in which the launch tower's recovery arms grab the returning Starship directly. Success would sharply cut launch costs and preparation time through rocket reuse.
AI Business Value to Rise Fivefold — From $32 to $165 a Share
What drew Morgan Stanley's attention most was SpaceX's AI business. With the stock around $160, the market was pricing the AI business at only about $32 a share, the bank said, but that figure could be valued at as much as $165 a share once the enterprise AI business ramps up — more than five times the value currently reflected.
SpaceX is expected to deploy 4.1 gigawatts of data center power for AI computing, equivalent to about three large 1.4-gigawatt nuclear reactors. Earlier this year, Musk said space-based data centers would become the cheapest way to train AI, predicting it would happen "within two years, or three at the latest."
Expectations for profitability are also high. Morgan Stanley estimates SpaceX could sell AI computing services in its neocloud business at $30 to $50 per watt, up to 2.8 times the market estimate of $17.60.
The company is also moving faster to build out its semiconductor supply chain. Musk said on the 5th that SpaceX is in early discussions with TSMC over "Terafab," its own chipmaking facility. Terafab is envisioned as a large-scale plant handling everything from chip design to production, packaging and testing in one location.
Jonas said upcoming AI product unveilings, technical progress on Starship and additional neocloud contracts would be the key factors driving the stock toward the $300 target. He also noted that the high technical difficulty of items such as Starship's heat shielding and rocket engines makes it hard for investors to properly assess the value of the business.
Tesla Rises Alongside SpaceX as Musk's Fortune Swells
The SpaceX rally is also turning attention to Tesla, Musk's other core company. In the most recent regular session, on the 5th, Tesla closed at $378.73, up 2.20% from the previous session.
Investor sentiment toward Tesla has improved recently after third-quarter vehicle deliveries beat market forecasts. Tesla reported deliveries of 486,532 units for the quarter, above the market estimate of 456,896. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on the 21st.
The rise in SpaceX shares has also swelled Musk's fortune. Forbes estimates his net worth, including stakes in SpaceX and Tesla, at $1.046 trillion (about 1,400 trillion won). That restores the "trillionaire" title he first claimed shortly after SpaceX's June listing and then lost as the stock fell — regained in about three months.
SpaceX shares still trail the intraday high of $225.64 reached in June. Morgan Stanley, however, sees that gap as an opportunity, judging that if Starship's reusability technology and the AI computing business advance as planned, the current share price in the $170 range does not fully reflect SpaceX's potential.
