NEW YORK — President Lee Jae-myung's reference to the possibility that North Korea could export nuclear weapons is seen as an attempt to raise awareness that the North Korean nuclear issue could spread beyond the Korean Peninsula into an international proliferation threat. It also appears to reflect a sense of urgency that pursuing only "complete denuclearization" while the North continues to build up its nuclear forces would mean "nothing can be achieved."
Lee, who is visiting the United States to attend the U.N. General Assembly, warned in a New York Times interview published on the 21st that "if North Korea judges that it has secured enough nuclear weapons and missiles to guarantee its own survival, it will be tempted to export them to make money," adding that "that will be a truly dangerous moment." He meant that consideration must be given to a situation in which the North moves beyond securing a deterrent to maintain its system and begins proliferating nuclear weapons.
His remarks are also read as reflecting a judgment that the international political landscape surrounding North Korea has changed. Since the war between Russia and Ukraine began, North Korea has supplied troops and weapons to Russia, and both Russia and China have again embraced the North as a strategic partner. Isolation and sanctions alone can no longer bring Pyongyang to the negotiating table as they once did, according to this view. The approach is seen as an effort to first break the vicious cycle in which the North's nuclear capabilities keep growing while demands for complete dismantlement remain on the table.
In an Associated Press interview released at the same time, Lee laid out a three-step solution: halt, reduce and then dismantle. "To change the direction of a moving car, you first have to bring it to a stop," he said, calling the phased approach "a practical way to effectively resolve the North Korean nuclear issue."
As a reciprocal measure to draw out a halt, he pointed to easing sanctions. Lee told the New York Times that "trading sanctions that have little real effect for a halt to the development of additional nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile technology has considerable value." In an interview with Time marking his 100th day in office last year, he left the door open by saying that "compensation is possible," and this time he went further by presenting specific terms of exchange.
Phased dismantlement, however, is expected to draw controversy because it could be seen as effectively recognizing North Korea's status as a nuclear weapons state. Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said, "North Korea becomes a nuclear weapons state, the nuclear threat to our country continues, and there is also a possibility that the North will instead advance its nuclear capabilities through the lifting of sanctions." He added, "There must be a long road map in talks with North Korea, and at the end of that road map there must be denuclearization."
Considerable hurdles remain before phased denuclearization can produce actual results. Lee Kyu-jung, a research professor at Korea University's Institute for Peace and Democracy, said, "How tightly verification and reciprocal measures are designed in the process leading from a nuclear freeze to reduction and dismantlement will determine the success or failure of the phased denuclearization concept."
Meanwhile, Lee responded calmly to U.S. pressure over investment in the United States and the dispatch of troops to the Strait of Hormuz. Citing shipbuilding cooperation and other examples, he stressed that he "plans to build an even more mutually beneficial alliance during President Donald Trump's remaining term."
