Non-Chip Profit Outlook Jumps 15% in Three Months

* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial-intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.

1. Profit Expectations Rise for Non-Chip Stocks, Up 15% in Three Months

Key points: The 2027 operating profit forecast for KOSPI 200 companies excluding Samsung Electronics and SK hynix has been revised up sharply, by 15.1% over the past three months. That is roughly three times the 5.5% upward revision for the two large-cap chipmakers combined, with profit expectations rising fastest in energy and shipping — SK Innovation up 56.4%, S-Oil up 42.0% and HMM up 35.8%. Analysts said the fact that forecasts rose even as the won strengthened, with the won-dollar exchange rate averaging 1,423 won in the third quarter, down 5.22% from the previous quarter, means real earnings improvement is emerging beyond currency effects. If oil prices stabilize and the domestic economy continues to recover, the earnings rebound could spread to domestic demand sectors such as banking and credit cards, liquor and beverages, and airlines and ground transport, according to the outlook.

2. U.K. 30-Year Yield Tops 6% for First Time in 28 Years; French 10-Year at Highest Since 2002

Key points: Britain's 30-year government bond yield rose as high as 6.020% intraday, the highest since 1998, while the U.S. 10-year yield hit 5.345%, its highest since April 2002, as G7 bond yields surged simultaneously. Analysts said increased bond supply from fiscal deficits, expanded corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure investment and entrenched inflation pressure from higher oil prices are all pushing yields higher at once. Still, the chances that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate increases this month have risen, after September nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000 — less than a third of the 90,000 expected — and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said data trends must be reviewed carefully. "In an environment where high rates are not quickly resolved, fundamental divergence between sectors can matter more," Kang of Shinhan Securities said.

3. Korean Retail Investors Pile Into U.S. Bonds, Buying More Than Stocks

Key points: Net purchases of U.S. bonds by Korean investors reached $3.184 billion (about 4.3047 trillion won) in August and September, and in September net bond purchases of $1.363 billion exceeded net stock purchases of $1.001 billion for the first time. Over the same period, settlement value for U.S. stocks was effectively halved, falling from $65.63 billion in June to $32.85 billion in September, while U.S. bond holdings grew 16.0% in three months, from $13.55 billion to $15.72 billion. Analysts said the shift reflects higher interest-income expectations among new bond investors as the U.S. 10-year yield moved into the 5.3% range and the 30-year topped 5.6%, the highest levels in 24 years, while the relative appeal of stocks declined. Some observers said upward pressure on yields is unlikely to ease quickly, given high energy prices and corporate bond issuance tied to AI investment.

4. HBM, NAND and CPUs: AI ETFs Are Being Sliced Into Niches

Key points: As the AI investment boom extends, the exchange-traded fund market is seeing a steady stream of products specialized by sub-industry, including HBM, NAND and CPUs. Last month alone brought KB Asset Management's RISE Global AI NAND Memory Semiconductor and Hanwha Asset Management's PLUS Korea HBM Semiconductor and PLUS AI Semiconductor Materials, Parts and Equipment Active, while products concentrated on DRAM and ones specialized in U.S. CPU companies such as AMD, ARM and Intel are close to listing. Beyond chips, Mirae Asset's physical AI ETF and NH-Amundi's first domestic agentic AI theme ETF have also launched, widening the scope of AI investing into the physical world, including robots and automobiles. Asset management industry officials said the trend is toward designing products more precisely, on the assumption that investor attention may concentrate on areas where growth potential stands out.